For operators that need an easier and more accurate way to forecast sales, MarginEdge factors in all your key variables (past sales, holidays, seasonality, weather etc) to take the guesswork out of running your restaurant.
This article explains the feature and offers instructions on how to set up your Sales Forecast.
- How is this Created and Used?
- Setting Up Sales Forecasting
- Multi-Unit Setup Notes
- More details on the Math
For more information about how to navigate the data, please see this article: Exploring your Sales Forecast
How is this Created and Used?
the HOW
- The MarginEdge forecast analyzes up to three years of past sales data – accounting for holidays, seasonality, weather and trends to create an accurate sales forecast
- Forecast is automatically updated daily based on actual sales (but typically, we don't see any big swings)
- More details about the math are below....
the WHY
- Understand how you're pacing to inform planning for next period
- View how sales are trending this year vs last year to help stay on track
- Use forecasts to align labor with expected demand
- Order with confidence—use sales forecasting in combination with your budgets to reduce waste and avoid shortages
Are there any limitations?
We update the data daily based exclusively on actual sales. While we do not make any forecast updates based on any manual notes you may enter or any weather forecast data at this time, we still encourage you to log any notes or adjustments you may find relevant for your team as you utilize the data! These notes help your team stay informed, and over time, we will be hoping to incorporate notes into the forecast predictions.
Note that we use your restaurant's location to obtain historical and predicted weather data, and with this, our forecasting system can account for weather-related patterns when predicting future sales.
Sales forecasting is separate from and not included in your Nightly Sales Email.
Key Components
Required:
- You must have at least 28 days of sales data recorded in [me]
- To generate a forecast, you must have the permissions of either a MarginEdge Admin, Restaurant Admin, or Accountant.
Optionally, you can:
- Mark which days your restaurant is closed
- Import your own sales forecasting instead of using our model's data
- Add notes on a day for special events
- Copy the settings across to other units in your company to speed up setup
Setting Up Sales Forecasting
You can choose how your forecasts are generated, set them up for multiple locations, and even import your own forecasts. Here's how to get started.
Tip: You can always come back and update your forecasting settings later from the forecasting page.
Step 1: Access the Setup Page
Go to Performance > Sales Forecasting.
Click the “Get Started” button
Step 2: Select Your Forecast Method
You have two options:
1) [me] Model (recommended)
Automatically generated by MarginEdge using your historical sales. Available after 28 days of sales.
2) Manual Import
Upload a CSV to provide your own forecasts. You’ll get a template to download during setup.
Step 3: Choose Days of Operation
Indicate which days your restaurant is typically closed.
- Closed days will be marked visually on the calendar and will not receive an auto-generated forecast.
- You can override closures later if needed, or make changes ad hoc for opening hours.
Final Step: Review and Save
When you’ve completed setup, you’ll be dropped into the calendar view of your forecast. If you need to make changes, click "Back", otherwise click "Save settings".
You can edit, import, or adjust your settings anytime by clicking “More Options” > Adjust Setup
Multi-Unit Setup Notes
If you manage multiple locations, you have the option to:
- Apply setup steps to multiple units at once, or
- Complete setup for each location individually.
At the bottom of the final review screen, you will see an option to check the box to enable the [me] forecast at all of your locations. Click this to skip an individual setup in each location!
(If you don't see this box, you may need to ensure you have the appropriate permissions in each of your units.)
More details on the Math
Our sales forecasting system combines time series frameworks like Meta's Prophet to analyze multiple patterns in your historical sales data to predict future performance.
Here's the core components that go into each forecast:
- Historical Trend - Your restaurant's overall growth or decline trajectory over time, accounting for gradual changes in your baseline sales
- Seasonal Patterns - Recurring cycles we've identified in your data (like day of week patterns, weekend vs. weekday performance, monthly patterns, or predictable busy/slow periods throughout the year)
- Holiday Effects - Impact of major holidays and local events that historically drive changes in your sales
- Weather Effects - Impact of weather events that historically drive changes in your sales
The system weighs these components based on how strongly each pattern appears in your specific sales history. Restaurants with consistent patterns will see forecasts that rely heavily on seasonality, while restaurants with strong growth trajectories will see trend weighted more heavily. Each sales category is forecasted separately to capture unique patterns.
Ready to explore the data? See this article for more info! Exploring your Sales Forecast